By Ryan Colasanti, Gibson Hirt, and Ryan Martin
Season So Far
Maryland started this season hoping for a bounce-back campaign following a disappointing sophomore season under head coach Kevin Willard. The Terps finished the 2023-2024 season with a losing record (16-17) and a second-round exit in the Big Ten Tournament.
Seven players returned from last season’s roster. Key role players DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jordan Geronimo came back for their second years. Most importantly, though, Julian Reese returned for his senior season.
“He wanted to get his degree from the University of Maryland, because he’s a Maryland kid,” Willard said after Maryland’s regular season finale. “He wanted to get back to the NCAA Tournament and he felt this was the best place to do it and, you know, he was loyal.”
The Terps started the season well, winning three straight games against non-conference foes.
That led to the Terps’ first real test of the season — a home game against then-No. 15 Marquette. Maryland battled but failed to secure its first Quad-one win of the season.
The loss didn’t discourage the Terps as they responded to the adversity by winning five straight — their largest winning streak of the season. Maryland entered conference play with seven wins and the lone loss to Marquette — it’s only blemish to that point.
The Terps started Big Ten play with a victory over Ohio State, but familiar road struggles came to the forefront. On their inaugural trip out west, the Terps lost to Washington and Oregon by a combined margin of ten points.
Maryland’s conference road record hit a season-low (0-4) after an overtime loss to Northwestern in Evanston a little over a week later. Serious doubts about the team’s ability to win on the road emerged from there.
Any doubts about this iteration of Maryland basketball subsided following back-to-back road wins against then No. 17 Illinois and Indiana in its next three games. From there, the Terps won five of their next six, including a 101-point performance against Iowa — the most they’ve scored in a Big Ten game in program history.
Maryland — led by its dominant starting lineup nicknamed the “Crab Five” — won its last three games of the season after a disappointing three-point loss to then-No. 8 Michigan State at home.
The Terps’ 14-6 conference record and a critical against then No. 17 Michigan propelled them to the second seed in the Big Ten Tournament. It’s Maryland’s highest seed in the conference tournament under Willard.
Next Opponent
Illinois is coming off a 106-94 offensive explosion against Iowa in the second round.
The two teams set the highest-ever combined point total in a Big Ten Tournament game with their 200-point output. The Illini’s 106 points were the second-most scored by a single team in tournament history, ironically trailing only Iowa, which scored 112 in 2022. All five Illinois starters scored in double figures, including four with at least 19 points.
In the only prior matchup of the season, Maryland used a dominant second half en route to a 91-70 victory in Champaign. With 7-foot-1 center Tomislav Ivisic out battling an illness, Reese and Derik Queen took full advantage of the size supremacy. Reese finished with a season high in both points and rebounds — 27 and 17 respectively — while Queen also scored 25 points of his own.
Ivisic nearly dropped a triple-double against the Hawkweys on Thursday, finishing with 19 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Alongside standout freshman Kasparas Jakucionis, the Illini are a dangerous offensive team but have exploitable weaknesses defensively, which the Terps will look to expose in Friday’s quarterfinal.
Potential Roadblocks
Gibson: Three-point shooting — In four of Maryland’s seven losses this season, it shot 30% or worse from beyond the arc. It’s not like the Terps missed their first few shots and decided to move away from the deep ball; in all four of these games, they attempted at least 10 threes and never made more than six.
Maryland went 2-for-11 at Washington, 6-for-20 at Northwestern, 3-for-13 at Ohio State, and 4-for-20 vs Michigan State. The Terps are at their best when all three guards are sharing the ball and knocking down threes at a high clip.
Ryan C: Turnovers — The Terps lost the turnover battle in all but two of its seven defeats this season. Maryland coughed the ball up less than 11 times per game during the regular season so it hasn’t been a significant issue, but allowing extra possessions to the conference’s best could spell disaster. Turnovers limit Maryland’s ability to press, which is a crucial part of the Big Ten’s second-best scoring defense.
Key to Success
Gibson: Offensive rebounding — Maryland’s offense has mildly cooled off after shooting over 58% from the field and scoring a school-record 101 points in a Big Ten game vs Iowa in mid-February. Despite that, the Terps have gone 4-1 since that game, with their only loss coming on a half-court buzzer-beater.
One of the biggest factors in Maryland’s continued success has been its offensive rebounding. Reese led the conference on the offensive glass, collecting 3.1 second-chance boards per game. Queen wasn’t far behind, snagging 2.24 offensive rebounds per game, good for seventh in the Big Ten. If the Terps have an off night shooting the ball, the offensive glass will be huge for them to stay in the game.
Ryan C: Second half Rodney Rice — Rice has been a scoring machine for Maryland this season averaging 14.8 points per game with over 40 made 3-pointers during conference play. Many of those points came after intermission.
In the last five games, Rice is averaging ten points per game in the second half, shooting over 50 percent from the floor. Rice’s second-half offense often provides the spark Maryland needs to win, and after being the only member of the starting lineup to not receive postseason honors, Rice will be playing with an edge.
“It don’t bother me, but I thought it was really crazy. I’m definitely going into [the Big Ten tournament] with a chip on my shoulder,” Rice said.
Ryan M: Finding Bench Scoring — This narrative may be overused, but worth noting going into both the conference and NCAA tournaments.
Maryland’s “Crab Five” has seven games this season in which all five starters have scored in double-figures — the most in the country. But the late season loss to Michigan State, in which Maryland scored a season-low 55 points, proved how the Terps may need to be weary of what happens when their starters have an off night offensively.
Maryland’s 7-0 this season when its bench outscores its opponent — a number to watch as Willard has most commonly relied on his reserves solely for defense and rebounding.
X-Factors
Gibson: Selton Miguel — When people talk about the “Crab Five,” they usually focus on Queen or Ja’Kobi Gillespie. After all, they were two of the three Terps who received All-Big Ten honors. However, Miguel might be the most underappreciated member of the five.
The USF transfer shot over 40% from deep this season and finished top-10 in three-pointers made in conference play. After knocking down five threes against Iowa, Willard said he’d be happy if Miguel never dribbled again and shot every time he touched the ball.
Maryland is a perfect 13-0 this season in games where Miguel makes at least three shots from beyond the arc.
Ryan C: Jordan Geronimo — This pick might seem like a stretch, considering the fifth-year senior is averaging under nine minutes a game, but Geronimo makes a visible impact when he’s on the court. He’s scored four points in the Terps’ last two games and provides energy, effort, and rebounding off the bench. He’ll be a key piece in helping Maryland manage the minutes of its starting five, which averaged over 30 minutes per game during conference play.
Ryan M: Ja’Kobi Gillespie — Gillespie’s introduction to the Big Ten Tournament comes with high expectations. Maryland’s newest point guard this season put together a phenomenal regular season, earning All-Big Ten Third Team honors and leading the conference in made three-pointers. But he also struggled to shoot the ball efficiently down the stretch.
Gillespie shot 20% or worse from the field in two of Maryland’s final four games — numbers that’ll need to improve for the Terps’ leading shot-taker.
Predictions
Gibson: Maryland defeats UCLA, 63-55, in championship — It’s been almost exactly five years to the day since the Big Ten tournament and NCAA tournament were canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That 2019-20 season saw Maryland finish with the exact same overall (24-7) and conference (14-6) record as this year.
A projected 3-seed in 2020, Maryland is once again in a similar position heading into the postseason and has a chance for a little revenge. I’ve got the Terps knocking off Illinois and Purdue on their path to the championship game. Many expect this game to be a rematch with Michigan State, but I think the Spartans are upset by UCLA in the semis.
Maryland took down the Bruins by 18 points in early January, but the new members of the Big Ten have been playing well recently, winning 11 of 14 to end the season. I’ve got the Terps winning their first-ever Big Ten Tournament title, getting ready for what will potentially be a deep NCAA tournament run.
Ryan C: Maryland defeats Michigan State, 65-60, in championship — I’m a big believer in Maryland’s ability to win its first Big Ten Tournament Championship this season. The double-bye was crucial for the Terps. I think the days off will result in a refreshed offense and once the conference’s third-highest-scoring offense gets into a rhythm, it’s difficult to stop.
The Spartans are the top seed for a reason. Their offense isn’t flashy, but Tom Izzo’s team wins by being great at the boring stuff. The Spartans are second in the Big Ten in rebounding, assists, and free throw percentage. They also have the fifth-best defensive rating according to KenPom; plus, who doesn’t love a little revenge game on the conference’s biggest stage?
Ryan M: Michigan State defeats Maryland, 69-61, in championship — It’s so difficult to beat a conference team twice in such a short span, but if there’s a team that could do it to Maryland in Indy, it’d be this year’s top-seeded Michigan State.
The Spartans didn’t look sound offensively in their 58-55 buzzer-beating win over the Terps on February 26th, but Michigan State and reigning Big Ten Coach of the Year Tom Izzo match up well against this year’s Terps.
Michigan State’s depth and big men contained Reese and Queen to just 14 points combined on 4-18 shooting, while All-Big Ten Third Team guard Jase Richardson was, in all essence, the player of the game with 15 points and 8 rebounds. The Spartans’ roster is made for March and equipped to claw out another win over Maryland in this year’s Big Ten Tournament Championship.
