By: Nolan Rogalski & Aidan Currie

How we got here

The Terps began the 2024-2025 season with 10 new faces on a team of 15, and experts around the country doubted whether head coach Brenda Frese would be able to juggle the pieces and get her team to gel quickly. 

In reality, the Terps began the season as if they’d known one another forever. Maryland began the season with an impressive 14-0 unbeaten run, becoming one of the final five undefeated teams in Division I. The Terps didn’t lose until January, when they dropped a narrow 79-74 game to then-No. 4 USC – a game that looked at the time like it was destined to repeat in late March. 

However, Maryland’s season can be distinctly split into two parts: before Bri McDaniel’s ACL tear, and after Bri McDaniel’s ACL tear. 

McDaniel was lauded as the Terps’ best one-on-one defender and was the heart of the team. The junior’s recognition with a Big Ten Honorable Mention – after averaging 10.6 points per game across just 17 games while shooting over 50% from the field – attests to her quality, which the Terps sorely missed across the remainder of the season.

In the games leading up to and including McDaniel’s injury – suffered on Jan. 14 against then-No. 24 Minnesota – Maryland was 16-1, with USC its only loss. Maryland went 4-1 against ranked opponents, winning three of four such contests at home. 

Since then, Maryland has gone 7-5, winning just a single ranked matchup in four tries. Even that lone victory, a 93-90 overtime win over Ohio State on Sunday, needed a miracle shot from Sarah Te-Biasu. And when the Terps lose, they lose ugly – by an average of 16.4 points since Jan. 14.

And while the Xfinity Center continued to come out in droves to support Maryland, the Terps lost three of their last five home games, often leaving a bitter taste in their mouths.

A knee injury Shyanne Sellers sustained against now-No. 1 Texas in the Coretta Scott King Classic has continued to hamper her and kneecap the Terps on both sides of the ball. “Senior Shy” has shown immense resilience in overcoming adversity, though, she’s left several games with a reaggravations during the tailend of this season. But everytime, Sellers has managed to return, often to a rapturous applause. 

And yet, Sellers has not had to do everything for Maryland this season. While the senior did become the first Terp with 1,500 points, 500 assists, and 500 rebounds in their career, and while she has taken over in individual games, the supporting cast around her has been strong.

While Sellers leads Maryland in assists, Sarah Te-Biasu leads in minutes, Kaylene Smikle leads in scoring, Saylor Poffenbarger leads in rebounds and Christina Dalce leads in blocks. 

This balance and diversity has allowed an ever-rotating Maryland lineup to shoulder the load of injured teammates and bring the team to a respectable 23-6 record heading into the postseason. Maryland enters the Big Ten tournament with scars to show for their efforts but will remain confident of hanging with the conference’s top contenders.

What’s at stake?

Maryland sat in the unfamiliar territory of the NCAA tournament bubble when it entered last year’s Big Ten tournament. The Terps once again wade in uncharted waters ahead of the 2025 conference tournament, but they have the luxury of certainty on their side this time around.

No matter what happens, Maryland is a lock to make the big dance, but the Terps are still fighting for a top-four seed. In their 17 tournament appearances since 2006, the Terps have held a top-four seed on 15 occasions. 

In the current layout of the NCAA tournament, the 16 teams seeded within the top four act as host sites for the first two rounds. By most accounts, the Terps enter this week just outside of that field, but there’s certainly space for upward movement. 

As of Friday morning, ESPN projects Maryland as a five-seed in an opening weekend hosted by fourth-seeded Kansas State. The Wildcats face West Virginia (currently projected as a six seed) in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals today. A loss would potentially open the door for Maryland to jump into the top four. 

The other three projected four seeds all come from the South.

North Carolina and Ole Miss are both still alive in their respective conference tournaments, though Alabama was upset by Florida on Thursday, in the second round of the SEC tournament. The Crimson Tide’s loss opens the clearest potential avenue for any five seed to move up a line. But Maryland’s biggest competition in this department may come from a conference opponent.

ESPN projects Tennessee, Baylor, and Ohio State as the three other five seeds. The Lady Vols saw an early exit in the SEC tournament, while the Bears will face a surging Iowa State team on Friday, in the Big 12 quarterfinals. 

Like Maryland though, the Buckeyes were awarded a double bye in the Big Ten tournament. They face Iowa in Friday’s quarterfinal nightcap. Ohio State will likely face UCLA in the semifinals if they handle the Hawkeyes. 

The Terps open their conference tournament stretch against Michigan at approximately 2:30 p.m. today. A win in that game would likely set them up against top-seeded USC in the following round. 

There’s currently optimistic buzz surrounding the Terps, as many believe a win over the Wolverines would decisively allow them to host the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament. But with several projected four and five seeds still alive in their respective conference tournaments, Maryland’s seeding fate may come down to a potential matchup against the Big Ten regular season champion Trojans.  

Terps to watch

Aidan

X-Factor: Kaylene Smikle

The Terps’ obvious choice in this role is Sellers, but there’s no mystery behind what the senior will deliver in the postseason; she’s been on this stage plenty of times throughout her career. 

But the same can’t be said for Smikle — Maryland’s leading scorer. She’s played in just two postseason games during her collegiate career, both of which came in the conference tournament during her freshman year. 

Even in the unfamiliar tournament setting, it’s unlikely that Smikle’s offensive production will dip. But her impact on the other side of the ball will be just as important. 

Frese consistently challenged Smikle’s defense throughout the regular season. The junior has made notable strides in response, culminating in last Sunday’s nail-biter against Ohio State. Smikle grabbed a crucial block on a Buckeye jump shot down the stretch, her most emphatic defensive play of the year. 

Smikle’s defensive development, combined with her sustained scoring success, makes her Maryland’s most important piece, as the team aims to make runs in March.

Nolan

Dark horse: Mir McLean

McLean’s usage dwindled near the beginning of February, and Terps fans would’ve been forgiven if they thought they’d seen the last of Mir in big moments. However, an injury to Saylor Poffenbarger has coincided with a massive uptick in minutes for McLean. 

After amassing just 17 minutes across Maryland’s first four games of February, McLean has averaged over 18 minutes a game in Maryland’s last four, earning five points and four rebounds a game. As the de facto second player off the bench (behind Emily Fisher) for as long as Poffenbarger remains out, the graduate guard will need to be at her best if the Terps are to taste postseason success.

Tournament Winner Predictions

Aidan

No. 1 USC over No. 3 Ohio State, 84-78

Picking UCLA and USC to meet for a third time in the past month — this time, with a Big Ten Championship on the line — has inevitably been the popular championship matchup choice. But I’m not sure if the Bruins will hold up their end of the bargain. 

UCLA is led by national player of the year contender Lauren Betts, who’s surrounded by a supporting cast that proved itself to be the deepest in the country this year. But the team that won 23 straight to open the season — 22 of which being by double-digits — hasn’t looked nearly as dominant over the past few weeks. 

A pair of losses to the Trojans and several close calls indicates a negative trajectory, as the Bruins simply aren’t playing their best basketball entering tournament weekend. In a theoretical semifinal between the Bruins and Buckeyes, I see the latter escaping with an extremely narrow victory. 

Then, in the championship game, I took USC for a fairly simple reason. The Trojans have the best scorer in the nation, and no one has a true answer. The Buckeyes actually defended JuJu Watkins fairly well (17 points on 21 shots) when they faced USC in early February. Given the sophomore’s adaptability as a scorer though, I’d be shocked if the Buckeyes could hold her to a similar stat line. 

Nolan

No. 2 UCLA over No. 1 USC, 71-68

Aidan’s right – picking UCLA and USC to meet for the third time in the championship game is the popular choice. But it’s the popular choice for a reason.

The Trojans are operating on another level right now. Watkins is averaging 24.4 points per game, the second-most in the country, and averaged 34 in her two games against UCLA. She is playing on another level right now, and USC looks a shoo-in to the championship game.

On the other side of the bracket, Ohio State and UCLA are the two easy answers – but I’d lean toward the Bruins in a potential matchup. UCLA handled the Buckeyes on Feb. 8, winning 65-52, and Lauren Betts is one of the most terrifying bigs in the game. Her size and mobility prove difficult to handle for most teams, and Ohio State forward Ajae Petty allowed Allie Kubek to drop 17 points – double her season average. Advantage UCLA.

What I’m looking at in the championship game is the impact of the whistle down low. USC’s Rayah Marshall – the Trojans’ best answer to Betts – has picked up four fouls in four of her last six games, including both against UCLA. If Marshall gets into foul trouble early, the Trojans will look to Clarice Akunwafo, who has 19 minutes in just two of her last six games – the UCLA matchups. And Akunwafo had three and four fouls in those games, respectively. 

If Betts gets aggressive in the post early and manages to draw fouls, she can end the double-big sets USC used to immobilize her. That’ll free her and a marvelous supporting cast that I haven’t even been able to mention to play the basketball that’s won them 26 games. Add in a down day from Watkins – perhaps only 20 points – and there is a clear path for Betts and the Bruins to grit out a revenge game.